A response to Chris Rennard on Crewe & Nantwich

Chris Rennard has responded to my recent blog on Crewe and Nantwich making some interesting points and I trust they will spark off further debate on our future campaigns. I am interested in what the learning points are for us as a party in the aftermath of C&N. Chris refers to the ratio of support (Con:Lab:Lib Dem was probably 4:2:1). Now that is a fascinating ratio, I would be interested to know how it compares with other by elections. If there was a drop off in traditional Lib Dem support I wonder why, or is this the normal ratio?

I don't accept that most of the criticism has come from armchair critics, but there has to be consideration of the alienation created by some of the campaign techniques. I have heard from a couple of people, one of whom is one of the best campaigners we have, who were very disturbed that whilst in no way competing with Labour, some of our literature in the campaign appeared to pander to anti immigrant sentiment. I trust this won't happen again.

I do accept a lot of the points Chris makes though, not least that not to have fought hard would have attracted further criticism of the party, but sometime we do have to consider the changed landscape and how we should respond to it.

I also acknowledge his points about the successes we have had (and all credit to him!) BUT that doesn't answer the point I made about a resurgent Tory party. Let's not forget this is their first by election victory in 30 years - if they maintain their momentum the world is a different place isn't it?

One issue Chris doesn't respond to is that of PR. Next year in the European elections we have another opportunity to develop our techniques in PR elections. Sadly these elections are left to the regions to fund and fight - yet the outcome will have a wider impact than just regional - this after all is likely to be the last national election pre the next General Election.

Yes, the Tories have learned from us bigtime - the difference being they have copied the packaging with none of the substance. Sadly, in a passive consumer age we are dealing with a situation where people don't often get beyond the packaging before it is too late. That is my real fear with what is happening and why I believe we must learn and learn fast, from the results of the past few weeks.

Lib Dems on tour and other stories!

I have had a hectic couple of weeks, with little time for blogging - but it's all gone quiet now so time to catch up. Before the trip to Belfast for Liberal International Congress I was invited to the British Legion Parliamentary Reception. It was over populated with Tories so it was good to see Lib Dem MPs Jeremy Browne (my hero!), Andrew George, David Heath and Don Foster there. I was amused when Jeremy introduced me to someone as a "top Lib Dem Blogger with a blog full of lively opinions, frequently expressed!" (now you know why he is top of my heroes list!) Andrew George commented that either I was stalking him or vice versa as I had bumped into him the day before when attending the launch of a Rainer report on young people and debt (a very important report which I will return to).

Later that afternoon I attended the launch of the Lib Dem friends of Sri Lanka, hosted by Lord Dholakia and addressed by Ed Davey, Andrew George (!), Tom Brake, Don Foster and Simon Hughes. My children (who are half Sri Lankan) also came which I am proud to say resulted in Lara (far right in the pic) joining the committee.

And then off to Belfast for Liberal International Congress. As I have already posted the highlight had to be hearing Morgan Tvsangarai, but I was also very moved by Maung Maung, General Secretary of the Federation of Trade Unions in Burma. A summary of his speech is here. What moved me most was when he was asked if he still lived in Burma. No, he had to flee in 1988 and he hadn't seen his wife or son since. He said it so matteroffactly, someone else who challenged me about how much I would be prepared to sacrifice in the fight for freedom.

There is a full report of the Congress here. And eventually I will get round to putting up all (well nearly all!) the pix here.

The Lib Dem contingency consisted of Jo Hayes, Julie Smith, Robert Woodthorpe-Browne, Phil Bennion, Chris le Breton, Jonathan Fryer and Simon Hughes. We were also joined by Ed Davey for a reception at Stormount on Friday evening, followed by a team Lib Dem meal and enjoying the delights of Fibber Magees live traditional music (even if it was so crowded it felt like being on the Northern Line!).

Another highlight for me was meeting Rosie Odinga, daughter of Raila Odinga, Prime Minister of Kenya - who described her relationship to her father as a "biological technicality"! Rosie is not only an incredibly inspirational woman, she is also a lot of fun and we had a great evening dancing in Morrison's in Belfast Saturday night.

Having a meeting in Belfast on Monday I took the bus down to Newcastle and went walking in the beautiful Mourne mountains on Sunday. The weather was glorious and the walk up Slieve Donnard spectacular..........tho seeing all the people in their proper walking boots with sticks, made me feel rather daft in my Dune pumps - carrying a handbag! Having dropped and broken my son's camera the night before I took some lovely pix on my phone, tho all to no avail since I then went and lost it :-(

On Tuesday I was part of an "expert" panel speaking at a House Magazine "Westminster Briefing" event. I had received a flyer to this event looking at financial inclusion some time ago, reading down the list of prestigious speakers - James Plaskitt MP, Brian Pomeroy (Financial Inclusion Taskforce), Angela Knight (BBA), thinking "hmmm this looks interesting" I was shocked to see Linda Jack with "invited" in brackets after my name! So, it was a great honour to be regarded as an expert and a great opportunity to bang the drum about an issue about which I feel passionately.

The rest of the week it has to be said, in contrast, has been rather like an episode of Eastenders..........but of course, on that, my lips have to be sealed!!!

Gordon, let's admit it, you don't cut the mustard

Listening to Gordon this evening I felt that horrible cringy feeling. Oh please stop, you sound pathetic. He may have been a sound Chancellor, but, as with others, he has surely been promoted to his level of incompetence. His total lack of self awareness has lead to him applying for.......and getting........a job for which he is not qualified. He is clever, has an eye for the big picture and the detail, a political heavyweight. BUT he totally lacks any ability to communicate, where are his people skills? Whatever anyone says about Blair (and regular readers will know I am not exactly a fan), he understood about connecting with people. Brown is failing because he doesn't.

Now, at the risk of upsetting the boys, I do think there is a gender issue. In my experience men apply for jobs whether or not they think they can do them, women tend to only apply for jobs they know they can do. So, Gordon has taken on a job, maybe arrogantly believing he can do it, but without the package to deliver. But, I do believe he is motivated by a sense of wanting to tackle poverty and injustice. In which case perhaps it is time to sacrifice his own personal ambition for the greater good. But..........I am not convinced, despite the events of the last few weeks, he can see that.

C&N - Not so much a disaster, more a wake up call

Last night's result, though disappointing, was quite predictable. With a resurgent Cameron, the Tories with their tails up, Labour rapidly falling into the hole of their own making, us in a poor third place, we were in for a classic squeeze. So why did the party insist on continuing to "big it up"? OK, don't be despondent but be measured. Last night will not be a disaster if it leads to some clear headed re thinking about the whole of our campaigning strategy. What worked in a different political climate (and all credit to Chris Rennard) may not work now. I fear we are in a post Rennard era, the techniques of the past may be past their sell by date. Most telling were the London Assembly results, a clear demonstration that the party of PR hasn't a clue when it comes to fighting PR elections!

What happened last night demonstrates that people are hungry for change, the innate optimism of the people believes that any change has to be better. The perennial cry of "you're all the same" is replaced with "well anyone's better than that lot". So the natural inclination is to look to who has the most chance of delivering change. When the Tories were all over the place (and let's not forget, it was only last summer Cameron was really shaky) we did well, now we have a different animal to contend with.

So, what to do? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I want to return to my "Risk" analysis. If you have a small army the stupidest thing to do is to try and take over the world - it ain't gonna happen! But, if you are prepared to consolidate, to lose some battles for the sake of greater gain elsewhere, to play a long game, to identify and exploit your opponent's weaknesses...........

I hope this will push us in the direction of really taking some chances, of living up to the promise of a radical alternative and to have a far more distinctive message. Chides of Cameronlite or Blairlite are very unfair on Nick Clegg, but until and unless the electorate understand what distinguishes us from the other two Tory parties, we are in danger of having reached our high watermark. I applaud James Graham's optimism, I want to believe him, but at the moment I need convincing that his analysis is sound.

Vince Cable - Cit Ad Parliamentarian of the Year!

Well done Vince!

(Pic from Federal Conference LGA Reception)

Morgan Tsvangarai - Hope: The Fuel that Drives and the Glue that Binds

In Belfast for Liberal International Congress and the highlight so far has to be Morgan Tsvangarai addressing us yesterday. I am always challenged when listening to activists for whom their activism often costs them their liberty, their health and for some ultimately their life. When the worst that can happen to me is a scolding from Paul Walter or Alex Wilcock, I am challenged to think firstly, would I put my life on the line for what I believed and secondly, if I did, would I have the wisdom and wherewithal to avoid being taken out almost immediately. So, listening to Morgan Tsvangarai was indeed a humbling, challenging and uplifting experience. 

He started by expressing his commitment to democratic development, but said it was hard to convey what this meant to the people of Zimbabwe, a dream that must not be allowed to be destroyed. He lauded the people  who had dared to cast their vote for change, even though that meant them facing having their homes burnt, bones broken and worse. Their commitment was to dignity, hope and freedom - based on a devotion to democracy. 

He reminded us of the recent elections and the violence of a party that had lost legitimacy. No Zimbabwean was safe, thousands had been targeted and many were having to flee, but the truth was that democracy often comes at a terrible price. He reflected that just as Northern Ireland had witnessed a new beginning, so a new beginning was inevitable in Zimbabwe. The regime was weak, supported by a few greedy countries, the people were facing not only broken bones but broken promises. 

He expressed his belief that an African solution was needed for an African problem, a solution based on human rights and democracy. Mugabe won't surrender power, but all needed to stand up for what they believe in. He spoke movingly of his sadness that  Robert Mugabe, once his hero as the liberator of his country had turned his back on his people. He had hardened his heart against them and the complacency of the people had lead to him acquiring more and more power. He reminded us that this wasn't a civil war, there was only one warring party, a party motivated by greed and power. 

He closed with an upbeat messages, the MDC were a government in waiting, the country was in crisis and they must implement a new legislative programme and instigate a new form of governance based on a new constitution. They would engage stakeholders to promote economic recovery and consult on a new constitution based on fundamental human rights and the rule of law - prosperity cannot be isolated from democracy. Despite even recent losses of two of their party members, Morgan was strong in his assertion that democracy must and will return. The MDC will promote inclusion and tolerance, they will never stop hoping as he said "hope is the fuel that drives and the glue that binds."

The curse of the moderator......on or off?

Alex Wilcock has had a bit of a go at me this evening for leaving my moderator on having lit the blue touchpaper and then swanned off for the day. Well Alex, it has to be said it is a while since I have upset you, so I guess it was gonna happen sometime (!) and I take your point. But, it tends to be when I am saying something controversial I get in as much trouble with comments as I do with what I said originally. But, given I am on a major swan off tomorrow until Monday night, to the wonderful city of Belfast, I will risk it. On the understanding that all commentators refrain from the temptation to drop me in it by making defamatory et al comments. Deal?

Man Woman Woman Man...........its all of no consequence in a by election, isn't it??????

Thanks to Jane for alerting me to the news that whereas last week we had an "attractive young woman" replacing a presumably not quite so attractive older man..........this week we have the reverse and all the associated fallout.

I made my views clear on Crewe and Nantwich selection and they apply here. If we think a candidate isn''t good enough why on earth do we select them???? But, the other interesting issue here is that at a time when we are banging on about a more representative party we have yet again missed a trick. Whilst Cameron et al are cynically ensuring they have women and BME candidates even in the most unlikely places (and I say cynically because I know from inside that this is motivated by image rather than a real commitment to diversity), we are yet again missing a trick. Are we really saying we have no women approved candidates able to cut the mustard in a by election? I can't believe that.

So yet again we will have dissent in the party which could so easily have be avoided. Let's get these by elections out of the way and then I will say what I really think!

Is Cameron in the wrong party?

A couple of years ago when Cameron started describing himself as a liberal, my immediate thought was, so what are you doing in the Tories then mate? At the time much was made of his invitation to some of our, shall we say, more right wing front benchers, to come and join his expanding tent. Maybe now is the time for Nick Clegg to make a similar approach the other way?


The news (hat tip to Darrell) this week that he has for the fourth time voted with the minority of his party perhaps is an indication that eventually (perhaps when he has to actually get some policies down on paper) there are likely to surface some real tensions between him and the mainstream. At the moment we are all distracted with the car crash that is the Brown government, but as some point the Tories will have to say what it is they stand for - and my hunch is - liberalism it ain't!

Playing footsie with Labour on the GLA

After my last post about Nick Clegg refusing to play footsie with the other parties, imagine my shock and horror to learn that our GLA members are doing just that! Newly elected Liberal Democrat members Dee Doocey, Mike Tuffrey and Caroline Pidgeon have supported Jeanette Arnold as Chair. This is the same Jeannette Arnold, who was quoted after the elections last week saying “I think Emily (Thornberry) is right to suggest that it will be Labour versus the Conservatives in Islington. The Lib Dems were fourth in the party vote. That is cause for concern for them. This was a bad week for Labour, but not in North East.” Clearly this has an impact on the local parties, with two target seats and no representation on the GLA to ensure their views were considered before this decision was taken. I do hope it doesn't come back and bite them in the bottom.

Obama on Israel

An interesting piece on Obama's website on Israel's 60th Anniversary, not much mention of occupation or the plight of the Palestinian's who were and continue to be, dispossessed. Does not bode well for a change in US policy post Bush.

Nick Clegg - I won't play footsie with the big boys

Thanks to the kind heart of Millenium's daddy I got an unexpected bite at the cherry at the Bloggers Bash with Nick Clegg this evening. I was a sub and since everyone turned up I really shouldn't have been there - but since I was in the building I got a special dispensation! I thought I would be clever and try out the voice recorder on my brand new all singing all dancing phone.........sadly it wasn't all it was cracked up to be! So, I am left with my memory and a few sketchy notes.

Nick looked and sounded incredibly fresh and upbeat following what must have been a gruelling few weeks. He was asked a range of interesting questions, but for me what was music to my ears was his response to a question from Paul Walter on electoral reform. He reminded us that this was one of Labour's promises in 1997 that had not materialised. Nick's response was that he wasn't about to do deals with a weak Labour Party in order to achieve that reform, nor did he have any appetite for doing deals with the Tories, his view, that there was "little merit in playing footsie with either party" - glad to hear it Nick!

As for the rest of the interview, more later!